Potential Factors which could prolong the General Elections in Pakistan

Introduction

The 15^th National Assembly of Pakistan is going to complete its five-year term on 12^th August 2023 and the general elections in Pakistan must be held within sixty days after the completion of the period of the Assembly as mentioned in the article 224 (1) of the Constitution of Pakistan. The Election Commission of Pakistan should abide the Constitution at all circumstances and hold the General Elections on National, Sindh, Balochistan assemblies whose term has completed with the National Assembly in August 2023. Along with that, the General Elections are also due on Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assemblies which was dissolved before the completion of its term due to political unrest in the country after the ousting of former Prime Minister Mr. Imran Khan through a no-confidence motion in April 2022. However, if the Election Commission of Pakistan compliance with the constitution of Pakistan and should abide by the Constitution in all circumstances and hold the General Elections in mid of the October 2023. It should be remembered that 68 percent of the country’s population has been deprived of its representatives for the past five-months and caretaker governments are in place to perform the functions to attend to day-to-day matters which are necessary to run the affair of the government including to assist the Election Commission to hold the general elections in the provinces accordance with the law.

After General Elections 2008, there was no political atmosphere in the country in such a way that there was any kind of disturbance in democratic process. And I believe that the following factors may prolong the electoral process and can affect the democratic continuity in the country.

Results of 7^th Population Census

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics just finished the exercise of the 7^th digital census of the country. According to the inconclusive (unofficial) results of the digital census that, the population of the country increased from 207 million to 249 million. According the latest tentative results that, after 2017 census there has been an increase of about 50 million people in the country which is very significant rise in just seven years. However, if the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics releases the final results of the 7^th digital census of the country, then these results will have profound impact on the conduct of the general elections in Pakistan following by the timelines mentioned in the constitution and elections laws. It should be remembered that the Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQM-P), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and Jamat-e-Islami had refused to accept the results of the Census 2017. Due to this uncertainty a political crises was emerged especially in Karachi division. Apart from this, the local government elections in the Sindh province were also delayed due to the census results.

Delimitation of the Constituencies

As mentioned earlier that the assemblies are going to complete their five-year tenure on August 12, 2023. At this stage the PBS publish the final results of the 7^th Digital Census then its constitutional obligation for the Election Commission of Pakistan to conduct the demarcation of the constituencies as per the article 51 and 106 of the Constitution of the Pakistan. The demarcation of the constituencies is considered an equal task to hold the General Elections. Because if the commission delimits the fresh delimitation of the constituencies, then the commission needs almost 90 days to complete the delimitation process for national and provincial assemblies.

The delimitation process includes the followings:

Freezing of boundaries of administrative units across the country
The constitution of Delimitation Committees and Trainings of the Committees by the Election Commission
The Election Commission made administrative arrangements for the conduct of delimitation exercise
Determination and sharing of the district quotas for the National and Provincial Assemblies seats with delimitation committees.
Preliminary report of delimitation of constituencies by the committees
It stakes 30 days to complete the above steps
Publication of Preliminary proposal for the delimitation of constituencies along with report. (The law has fixed 30 days for submission of representations on the preliminary list of constituencies).
Disposal/hearing of representation by the Commission (The law has fixed 30 days for hearing the representation submitted on the preliminary report)
Final publication of the of Delimitation

If the Council of Common Interests (CCI) order to the PBS to publish the final results of the census then the Election Commission must conduct the fresh delimitation in the country for National and Provincial Assemblies. So, due to this extensive process of delimitation of constituencies the General Elections will not be held on its time given in the constitution.

Disagreement on Elections

With regards to the conduct of the General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces, it was seen that the Federal Government and State Institutions did not provide the support to the Election Commission to conduct the GE in these provinces as per constitutional requirement. Likewise, the security agencies denied to provide the security, finance ministry denied to provide the funds despite the orders of the honorable Supreme Court of Pakistan. Similarly, the caretaker governments of both provinces also did not fulfill their legal requirement and continued to disturb the Election Commission of Pakistan in doing its constitutional work. Some major political parties have started saying that the digital census are also not done properly especially in Karachi. If the objections on census are repeated like in 2017, then there is strong possibility that the situation of upcoming general elections in Pakistan will be similar to the local boy elections in Sindh which were delayed due to the delimitation of constituencies for local government.

Victimization of political parties and its workers at is on the peak where many political workers are detained and tortured and forced them to leave political parties and join another party, although the political workers switch their political affiliation before the general elections and its part of the political process but the way the process is being speeded up this time, it seems possible to delay the general elections due to big difference in political parties. Or the main stream political parties are starting to feel that no party will be able to form a government in the federal on its own in the upcoming general elections, so such tactics are being used to delay the general elections.

Conclusion

For the continuity of democracy, it is important that major political parties should be on the same page and all stakeholders have complete level playing field so that political parties and candidates can participate in the electoral process on an equal footing without any pressure from non-democratic actors. Regarding the results of 7^th Census and after the delimitation process for National and Provincial Assemblies, the current government should amend the article 51 to provisional data of the census for the General Elections 2023 just like before the General Elections 2018, the constitution was amended to allow mark the constituencies based on the provisional results of the 6^th Census of the country.